Congress Rejects Census 2000 Sampling
Dateline: 10/20/97
The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct.This single sentence in the Constitution stirred quite a controversy in Congress and the media over the past few weeks and led to a veto of a measure which would have allowed the U.S. Census Bureau to sample portions of the population instead of performing a direct count in 2000.
-- Constitution of the United States, Article I, Section 2
In the 1990 census, about five million people were missed as the Bureau relies on citizens to complete and return questionnaires through the mail. The percentage of forms returned has dropped from 78 percent in 1970 to 65 percent in 1990. This decline caused the 1990 census to be less accurate than any before. Due to the undercount, composed mainly of hard to reach population such as minorities and homeless people, states with large underserved populations receive smaller proportions of federal funding for programs.
Statistical sampling is much more accurate than attempts at an actual count. With random samples, the probability of error can be mathematically determined based on the number sampled. Under the vetoed plan, the Bureau would have initially sent out questionnaires and then performed sampling on areas which had a low response rate.
Republicans in Congress were opposed to sampling. They invoked the "actual enumeration" statement in the Constitution to demand an actual count. Democrats feel that the Republicans want the enumeration because most of those who will not be counted are recipients of social welfare programs. Therefore, the fewer counted, the less money to help those who are eligible for the programs.
The Bureau was very disappointed in the rejection of their plan in Congress.
California was the state most affected by the actual enumeration and the resulting undercount in 1990. About one million Californians were missed, fully one-fifth of the total amount overlooked in 1990.
Shorter Form
At the direction of Congress, the Bureau will be utilizing a slightly shorter for Americans to fill out in 2000. In an effort to make the form simpler to increase responses, questions such as where people get their water, their condominium status, and how they dispose of their sewage are being eliminated.
Multiracial
There were a variety of proposals over the past few years to modify the racial categories for the next decennial U.S. census. One recently rejected proposal was to add a "multiracial" category for people who associate with multiple groups. Instead, residents will be able to check as many boxes as they like (choices will include white, black, American Indian/Alaska Native, and Asian/Pacific Islander). Additionally, the box "other" will be removed in 2000; almost 10 million chose that category in 1990.
Between now and 2000, the methodology and logistics of how the U.S. census will be taken are likely to change. More than two years of political debates and investigations can still take place and they likely will.
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