The Population Reference Bureau reports that Russia's birth rate is starting to catch up to its death rate. Although the death rate (14.3 per thousand) is still much greater than the birth rate (12.6 per thousand), the birth rate is increasing. In 2000 the birth rate was 8.7/1000 and the death rate was 15.3/1000. So while Russia's population will continue to decline, is will be declining more slowly than it has been. The latest estimate of Russia's population in 2050 from the U.S. Census Bureau's International Data Base is 109 million, down from nearly 139 million this year and 149 million in 1991, at the end of the USSR.
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I find it interesting that in only a few years Mexican population (in Mexico, that is) will exceed Russia’s population. In ten years: 112 x 10^6 x (1.0182)^10 = 134 million. (Where 112 million is present Mexican population, and 1.82% is current growth rate – from Wikipedia)
Well, actually I agree that Mexican people should have a lower birth rate, sin ce I am living in Mexico and I see how bad things are and in many cases due to large population growth. However your estimates are not accurate. As for today birth rate in Mexico is 1.9% minus 0.5% of death rate taht is 1.4% growth rate minus about 0.3% of net emigration rate. Plus you have to take in account that birht rate might decrease thruough years as it has been. Census revealed a much higher population than estimated but that does not mean that is the real growth. Many countries have face the same issue (Japan for example).
Osvaldo, Our difference is that I am using net growth rate in percent/year no mater how it occurs. For example world population growth is about 1.3% which gives plus 91 million per year. (7 x 10^9 x 0.013 = 91 x 10^6.) This is about what we have been experiencing. Maybe today it’s 80 million, maybe 100 million, too close to confidently call. We have added a billion in about 11-12 years or 83 to 91 million a year. Trying to get more precise is probably not justified. Too often the census experts strain to get the millions right and miss the tens of million by a mile.
In the case of Mexico I used a recent growth rate from Wikipedia that looks quite reasonable. My point was that Russia’s and Mexico’s populations are not wildly different today yet Mexico’s is increasing quite rapidly and Russia’s is in decline. Their populations will soon cross – nothing more.
I estimate about 150 million people to be living in Russia at present…and the figure should continue to rise if Immigration rules are relaxed further….till natural birth rates exceed death rates