National Geographic reports on the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season, which was the most tranquil hurricane season in quite some time. Although the Atlantic hurricane season doesn't end until December 1, with such a quiet year it is safe to say a major hurricane in the next week is unlikely. There were a mere nine named storms of the season, while the average is fifteen. There were three hurricanes and two of those became major hurricanes. National Geographic says, "Totals were well below yearly averages since 1995, when meteorologists think an ongoing period of increased hurricane activity began in the Atlantic. Hurricane seasons since 1995 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes."
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I heard an interesting observation through a radio interview about five years back. A climatologist from Florida State University pointed out that when the Atlantic hurricane season is quiet, typhoon activity in The Pacific and Indian oceans increases. And when Pacific/Indian ocean storm activity is less, the Atlantic storms increase in intensity and frequency.
Since that interview, that observation would appear to hold some credibility. This year, it may have been quiet in the Atlantic but Pacific storms have been ferocious. In 2004, it was the opposite. It is ironic how this simple, long-term observation seems to be completely ignored by scholars and the media, who immediately connect an increase in storm frequency/intensity with climate change.