The U.S. Geological Survey is reporting that Iowa's recent flooding and the 1993 flooding in the Midwest (including Iowa) were 500-year floods. How do two 500-year floods happen in a span of 15 years? Well, the 500-year flood designation really refers to a flood that has a 0.2% chance of occurring in any given year. Thus, two 1/500 chance floods did happen less than two decades apart. Maybe it is time to start reassessing the actual flood risk in the United States as 100-year and 500-year floods seem like they're happening on an annual basis.
For a further discussion of this issue, take a look at Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog where he expounds on this very issue. I'll quote a very interesting set of data, "Over the U.S., where we have very good precipitation records, annual average precipitation has increased 7% over the past century. The same study also found a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events over the U.S"
What do you think? Post your comments below!
Comments
Dear People,
I remember with some difficulty the name of a fortune-teller, visionary man. It was Edgar Cayce or Caycee. He saw that a good part of the East of the US was a sea. As to me I cannot compare, far from that, to Edgar Cayce, but 2 weeks before this happened, I dreamt of NY being flooded. I seldom have vision dreams like that. Logically I think we live a complete weather revolving pattern. do not forget that the gulfstream has lost 30% of its deplaced water volume, due to the loss of salinity (less salt in water). this has the power to cool Europe a big way.
Some places on Earth heat up and others cool down. I believe we are at a tipping point. Good to you and if Bush cannot protect the farmers of the Middle-West, I can only say: God bless !
My theory is that when spacecraft or satellites go up or come down (as one recently did), it wreaks havoc on the weather.
I remember as a kid in the 60′s, announcements were made whenever there was a space launch. Every time one went up, it would rain for days. Nowadays, you rarely hear announcements when spacecraft go up due to “secrecy missions” — and not just from the U.S) How many satellites are there now in space — a hundred or so in various positioned in space around the globe?
If scientists could gather data to test the theory, I bet they would come up with a viable conclusion.
Obviously, Francois has no idea of the immense size of the USA. NYC is nowhere near the Midwest. I am in the Midwest yet I am hundreds of miles from the flooding. I experienced the flooding of 1993 when I lived in eastern Nebraska. However, it was a small event compared to the recent flooding in Myammar or in Bangladesh in 1970.
And for Sharo, perhaps we should also have scientists study the impact of RFI-radio frequency interference on the atmosphere. Interestingly, all of this major flooding and “weird” weather since 1993 has coincided with widespread use of the cellphone in America. Another RFI event–the deadliest tornado on record was in the 1920′s, when anyone with a medium wave broadcast transmitter could get on the air. I’m sure that that was a coincidence, too. There’s also a weather-related theory called the “butterfly effect” that you might want to check out.
There is nothing terribly extraordinary about flooding, earthquakes, tsunamis and such. These are simply a part of earth’s continuing dynamics….which are still fewer now than in earth’s past geologic history……which serves far better for trying to posit answers than interpreting dreams or being a casual soothsayer. Try reading….more than pablum from the media, and researching actual accounts of earth history……a period of some 4.5 billion years in length.
Why should the government be responsible for where people decide to build whether a known flood plain, along fault zones, on barrier islands, or any other number of known hazardous areas? It should not. Nature happens.
People built homes and farms on the fertile land along the Mississippi River and its tributaries. The land got fertile because of frequent flooding which, laid down layers of mud.
If you live on a flood plain, don’t be surprised if you get flooded, duh!
And you should not expect others to pay for your decisions!
It sounds like many of you are falling victim to the logical fallacy of false causation and correlation (cum hoc ergo propter hoc). Simply because you notice precipitation after a satellite is launched into space does not mean that there is a positive correlation. And prolific cell phone usage and major flooding are likely not to be correlated since man-made electro-magnetic radiation (including RFIs) has never accounted for more than 7% of the radiation that the earth receives (source: United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation).
Single causality is a very shaky foundation upon which to stand. What we do know is that the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has acknowledged that humans are making changes to the earth’s climate due to the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Climate change is occurring; it is not surprising that there may be more flooding or more frequent precipitation events around the world.
We may also be realizing the higher frequency of floods because we have: 1) more equipment and precipitation monitoring stations than ever before, 2) more availability of media coverage, and 3) more people and farms located in those areas to be affected by such events.
We need to be able to move large volumes of waterto areas suffering from draughts much like we move oil and gas. We nee state governments and the national government to use their expertise and financing to help build 21st century dams and levees. We need to stop selling flood insurance to areas where claims are almost yearly occurrence. There are many areas where residential homes should not be built.
GeoLogical, I intended my comment on RFI and the weather to be sarcastic. After rereading my post, I see now that I should have used a stronger tone of voice to make that point. LOL However, your response was excellent.
Believe it or not, we headed for Des Moines, area when the flooding first started happening. We were heading up to the family farm and small community cemeter(ies) to bury my Mother’s ashes. I had already made up my mind that if we had to return at a later date…we would do so.
We rapidly rose abouve the water areas, closed hightways, and drowned farms.
The levees, and adjacent areas, were in terrible shape…however,we left it very fast. We even got sunburns while holding the interment.
This is something that all the States Along the Mississippi river are going to have to deal with…and building levees will not be the answer.
I don’t know what it will take, but it really is time for new answers and new ways of thinking. We humans are industrious creatures. We will do it.(and “grouse” all the while)
Interesting input from some folk and you have to love the ‘conspiracy-like theory’ stuff. Why let facts get in the way of a good tale, I wholeheartedly agree. The bottom line, as I understand it, is that there are so many variables (thousands at the very least, virtually infinite in my humble estimation) which play a role in our weather. This means that the art or science (?) of forecasting, even as we improve our skills over time, will always remain a best-guess effort.
We seek, in uncertain times (and they certainly are, as they have always been) certainty. We take out insurance, we hedge our bets, we run great enterprises on assumptions requiring stability. Ask any CEO what the market wants in his words and s/he would doubtless agree. Yet the globe, and the infinite number of variables that impact on our weather, do not subscribe to our limited thinking skills. We are surprised again and again when these anomalies occur.
I think we should celebrate the number of times we’re close to the actual facts as they unfold and rest assured in the knowledge that we will never know enough and that the 100 or 500 year flood line does not make it a once in 100 (or 500) year event in real life.
Aside from global warming and magnetic storm track changes, some man-made mistakes adding to other that are not man-made in other words, there is a single overriding cause of the damage in the Midwest. This is “postmodernism”–reality-replacement, reality ignoring and reality destruction–being engagedin by ‘public interest’ spouting statist petty dictators at the federal and state levels. Wetlands used to be found beside major rivers, just as a full mile of wetlands onceseparated New Orleans from the Gulf of Mexico. By failing to dredge rivers of sediment; by destroying vital wetlands and substituting levees alone; by substituting such levees being left to local management alone ; and by failing to provide honest scientific information–by all these causes the Army Corps of Engineers and regressive thinkers in both Congressional parties have badly worsened this situation for decade after decade. This is an eerie reminder of New Orleans–where the exact same crimes and omissions were cmmmitted, mostly by neocon Republicans who
tried to ignore reality but with the compliance of anti-conceptual Democrats as well. New Orleans was not destroyed by Katinra. Katrina was a category three storm that gave New Orleans a “near miss”; the destruction there was caused by the Army Corps of Engineers, by Repbubican reality bashing and by a denying of needed funds for epairs and upgrades over decades, and by Democrats ignoring the avoidable harm the other party was committing. Sacrmento has the same New Orleans’ problems, we are told; thousands of bridges need to be retrofitted and made safe nationally, the East coast is eroding, as is the West Coast where river seidment used to be deposited; the Arctic ice is melting–and out governmnt can’t even agree to cut down on carbon emissions. Yes it’s 80 percent Republican arrogance, stupidity and reality-bashing; but that still leaves it to the rest of us–to get real and listen to retruth-telling scientists, those who are warning us to change these “Elephant Walk” style imperial-presidential reality-ignoring activities and to get real about our goegraphy. We need more wild lands, and more animals not fewer; we don’t need nuclear power stations; we need renewable energy sources, the development of a steam-driven automobile, increased public transportation. We need an end to Congress’s support for suburbia, unwanted population growth paid for by our former middle class, an end to detached single family dwellings, roads to support tsuburban pretensions, decayed inner cities massive dams to support bloated cities and an end to every other form of suicidal neglect of the real. If we can solve just one question–why the US’s systems cost twice as much as anyone else’s and produce happiness for no one, then our unscienific so-called leaders may at last listen to scientific minds and not hack newsmen and other political hacks and start to get real. Where are the men who can think, themen to lead this former country out of the imperial wasteland of neocon pretensions and pseudo-religious irrrelevance that causes our order givers to fantasize–to imagine the title of senator, president, commissioner, boss, padre or CEO gives them the mental capacity to deal with a reality space-time they can’t begin to understand, define, predict about, let alone or treat with? That’s the 500-year problem that
s happened in the Midwest, New Orleans, and Washington DC–antiscientific imperialist bossism practiced in place of realism. A realism checked against reality by scientists to make sure the ideas suggested are working, and not just sounding fnice in partisan political soundbites.
The flooding is due to a lot of rain. That is going to happen at some times and in different areas. Cerello get off the typical liberal blathering of blaming everything upon Republicans. I’m sure you think they are responsible for all the rain. Government cannot solve all problems as you liberals like to believe. Weather happens, hurricanes happen, earthquakes happen–your government cannot ever solve and take care of everything.
hey, how are you today?