BBC correspondent Hugh Schofield writes about life in France and the government's efforts to increase population growth in the country with a non-replacement total fertility rate of 1.90.
I too have read about the population projections by the middle of the century put at 75 million for France; however, should the net growth rate continue at its current level (.0068), France will reach 75 million by 2037 and by 2050 it will have a population of 83.4 million, thereby having doubled during the century following the end of WWII. I have heard of others who say the figures by 2050 will be closer to the 80 million than the 75 million.
In any case, whether it be 2037 or 2050, the increase making France the most popuious state in the E.U. will probably have some major economic and political implications visa vie the E.U., as France will have a greater market for goods and services, which may actually make it the largest economy in Europe, surpassing that of Germany. She will probably need it in order to maintain tax revenues to continue paying out the family social subsidies to its population.
A concern that I have, though it may be unwarranted, is that she may feel that she is large enough economically at that time, that she may want to go it alone and not remain a member of the E.U. For that reason, it remains very important that all members of the E.U., including those not partaking of the Eurozone, integrate more quickly both economically and politically as a true United Europe under one flag, one monentary system, etc. Though its departure from the E.U. is most unlikely, there is still that remote possibility.
Comments
I too have read about the population projections by the middle of the century put at 75 million for France; however, should the net growth rate continue at its current level (.0068), France will reach 75 million by 2037 and by 2050 it will have a population of 83.4 million, thereby having doubled during the century following the end of WWII. I have heard of others who say the figures by 2050 will be closer to the 80 million than the 75 million.
In any case, whether it be 2037 or 2050, the increase making France the most popuious state in the E.U. will probably have some major economic and political implications visa vie the E.U., as France will have a greater market for goods and services, which may actually make it the largest economy in Europe, surpassing that of Germany. She will probably need it in order to maintain tax revenues to continue paying out the family social subsidies to its population.
A concern that I have, though it may be unwarranted, is that she may feel that she is large enough economically at that time, that she may want to go it alone and not remain a member of the E.U. For that reason, it remains very important that all members of the E.U., including those not partaking of the Eurozone, integrate more quickly both economically and politically as a true United Europe under one flag, one monentary system, etc. Though its departure from the E.U. is most unlikely, there is still that remote possibility.
Frances Population Future (Euros Only)
2010: 61,400,000
2015: 63,700,000
2020: 66,200,000
2025: 69,450,000
2030: 73,600,000
2035: 77,000,000
2040: 81,000,000
2045: 83,000,000
2050: 85,000,000
Frances Fertile Rates (Euros Only)
2010: 1.98
2015: 2.03
2020: 2.11
2025: 2.17
2030: 2.31
2035: 2.49
2040: 2.54
2045: 2.30
2050: 2.27